← Part 4

For thousands of years gold was the currency of kings. It’s beautiful, rust resistant, difficult to counterfeit, and hard to pull from the Earth. The Egyptians trusted it. So did the medieval world. Gold seemed like the perfect form of money.

Until civilization outgrew it.

The Banking Revolution

In the medieval era the Italians pioneered what eventually became modern banking. 1 Merchants could deposit gold in one city, receive paper claims in return, and then travel across Europe using those claims to access their wealth in distant lands. A merchant from Venice could arrive in London carrying notes instead of chests filled with metal.

Before banking, moving wealth across Europe was slow, expensive, and dangerous. Gold had to be physically loaded onto ships and wagons, then guarded as it crossed oceans and borders. Imagine transporting 1,000 pounds of gold from Venice to London. One storm or pirate attack could wipe out a fortune.

Even if the shipment arrived safely, the process was painfully slow. Imagine you are a merchant in Amsterdam trying to buy a business in Venice. First you send instructions by letter. Then the gold is loaded onto a ship and begins its journey across Europe.

How long would settlement take? Months.

Medieval Europe was filled with competing currencies. Different kingdoms minted different coins with varying gold content, and many rulers quietly mixed cheaper metals into their money. Counterfeiting was common as well, forcing merchants to constantly verify whether coins were genuine and what they were actually worth.

Banks simplified the process. A merchant could present a bank note and receive trusted local currency in return.

Banking made commerce easier in general. At first merchants redeemed notes for physical gold before making purchases. But over time something changed. Businesses simply started accepting the bank notes directly as payment.

You no longer needed to carry a heavy bag of coins on your hip all day. Instead, you carried notes in your pocket while the gold itself stayed locked away in vaults.

The Consequences

At first it was an incredible innovation. Banking made commerce faster and more efficient than ever before. But it also changed how people thought about money. Merchants stopped handling gold directly and began trading paper claims instead.

Eventually, they simply assumed the gold was there.

This led to fractional reserve banking. 2 Bankers realized that most depositors rarely withdrew their gold at the same time. So instead of letting the metal sit untouched in vaults, banks began lending it out.

As long as confidence held, the system functioned smoothly.

But when trust failed, bank runs followed. Panic spread quickly through economies, banks collapsed, and depressions followed.

Eventually confidence returned, new banks formed, and the cycle began again.

In the 1600s, merchants could take paper claims to a bank and receive physical gold in return. By the 1800s, nations had formalized these systems into official gold standards. Britain led the way in 1821, 3 and the United States followed soon after.

It seemed like the perfect balance between hard money and modern finance.

But the balance did not last.

By the 1930s, governments across the world stopped allowing ordinary citizens to exchange paper money for physical gold.

By the 1940s the gold standard was reserved for nation states rather than ordinary citizens. The United States accumulated massive gold reserves and, under the Bretton Woods system, positioned the dollar as the global reserve currency. 4 But even this system could not last. In 1971, President Nixon ended the dollar’s direct convertibility into gold. 5 For the first time in modern history, the global financial system was no longer formally tied to gold. Money now depended on trust in governments and central banks.

Why Don’t We Go Back to Gold?

I agree that gold is a better store of value than fiat currency. It doesn’t take a genius to see that. Compare the value of gold to the purchasing power of the dollar since 1913. 6

But modern finance is built around speed, scale, and global coordination. We can wire money across the world in seconds, run international businesses, and buy products online instantly. Physical gold cannot move at the speed modern commerce demands.

And the idea that we will return to a gold-backed currency is unlikely. We already spent centuries building financial systems designed to move faster than physical gold allows. There is no easy path backward.

This is not the result of some grand conspiracy to pull humanity away from sound money. Banking evolved because it solved real problems: distance, security, speed, and coordination.

If sound money ever returns, it won’t be through gold.

Maybe Bitcoin?

Final Word

Gold lost its status because it couldn’t keep up with the modern world.

“The lack of sound money is one of the greatest economic disturbances of our time.” — Friedrich Hayek

End of the Series. Beginning of a Book

This is the final article in my Gold vs Bitcoin series, but it is only the beginning of a much larger project.

I am currently turning these ideas into a full book covering the history of money, banking, fiat currency, and Bitcoin’s potential role in the future of money.

Paid subscribers will receive both a digital and physical copy of the book when it launches.

← Part 1

When I worked on the oil field in North Dakota I was told every safety rule is written in blood. The work was dangerous; I worked in -20°F weather, drove a semi truck on narrow roads with steep cliffs and worked with high pressure equipment up to 10,000 PSI. Because the industry is dangerous it is highly regulated. There was mandatory training, mandatory equipment (PPE) and mandatory procedures. All of it existed to prevent loss of life.

I later worked for BP and did a short stint with offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. I shook hands with guys who had been on the Deepwater Horizon when it blew up. I learned that the incident had nothing to do with the crew on the rig and everything to do with engineers and company leadership off the rig.

In September 2009, the Deepwater Horizon set a world record by drilling the deepest well in human history at 35,050 feet. 1 It had an excellent safety record with few incidents and it was the crown jewel of BP. Deepwater Horizon drilled world record wells for nearly ten years and then it exploded, becoming the worst maritime oil spill in history. Eleven people died and seventeen others were injured. Its previous safety record didn’t matter. 2

Every new regulation that followed was written in blood.

1. The old regulator Mineral Management Services was split into 3 organizations. 3

2. New well control rules were implemented.

3. New safety and environmental systems were put in place.

4. Permitting for a new well became tougher.

5. And a temporary halt to all deep water drilling took place.

Regulations Follow Disasters

AI is a powerful tool, but it behaves differently than traditional software. It is capable of inventing information and when it is wrong it's gloriously wrong. The dangerous part is that AI sounds just as confident when it makes a mistake as it does when it's correct.

Many people believe AI agents will operate with zero human supervision. But history shows the opposite. When industries cause major financial losses, environmental disasters or loss of life, governments step in and force new oversight, regulations and mandatory procedures.

In fact, AI has already caused problems in several industries and governments are already responding with fines, lawsuits and regulation.

• In the legal case of Mata v. Avianca the attorney suing the airline used ChatGPT to do legal research. The AI made up several precedents and the attorney was forced to pay a $5000 dollar fine. It was ruled that if AI makes a mistake it’s still on the attorney to get the information correct. 4

• Air Canada’s chatbot invented a bereavement refund policy and the airline was forced to honor it. 5

• Amazon’s AI recruiting tool had to be scrapped after the company discovered it was biased against women. 6

None of these incidents are as bad as the Deepwater Horizon explosion, but they point toward the same pattern: financial loss, lawsuits and liability for companies that rely on AI agents. A chatbot making up a refund policy is one thing. An AI system hallucinating legal precedents is another. But what happens when similar failures hit hospitals, oil rigs or nuclear power plants? Industries where people die when things go wrong do not reduce oversight after disasters. The regulations that follow are written in blood. They respond with more regulation. AI will be no different.

Welcome to the AI Baby-Sitters Club.

Conclusion

Humans won’t just oversee AI systems; it will be legally mandated. In fact, some industries may become aggressively anti-AI. I think that attempt will ultimately be thwarted, but industries like medical and legal will require massive amounts of human oversight to make certain AI is making the correct decisions.

As AI spreads through society, humans will not just remain part of the loop. The law will require it.

Final Word

AI won’t be above the law.

“Trust, but verify.” — Ronald Reagan

Join Crypto Confidence

If you’re thinking about where all of this is going, you’re not alone. One of the biggest shifts happening right now is that understanding these systems is becoming a skill in itself. That’s a big part of what I focus on in Crypto Confidence, where I teach people how to actually use AI and crypto instead of just reacting to them.

If you want to learn how to operate in this new world, you can join Crypto Confidence here.

Disclaimer:

The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 8

After saving the Mushroom Kingdom, Mario and Peach moved to New York City and settled into an apartment near Luigi. Mario founded a plumbing business and was very successful. It survived several recessions, provided Peach with a new tiara every year, and paid for private school for Baby Mario.

Now Baby Mario is about to graduate from high school, and Mario Sr. wants him to take over the family business. But Baby Mario doesn’t want to be a plumber. He wants to be a chef and specialize in mushroom-based dishes.

Mario Sr. doesn’t just want him to take over the business; he insists on it. “Plumbing is the only way to make money in this hard world. If you try something else, you will be poor and living on the street like Waluigi.”

Value Investing

Warren Buffett popularized value investing, 1 the idea that you invest in businesses with positive cash flow and reliable income. This approach served a generation of investors well and made Berkshire Hathaway the powerhouse it is today.

But many people have taken Buffett’s investing principles and turned them into a quasi-religion. They believe that if an asset does not produce income, it is automatically a poor investment and most likely a Ponzi scheme. This is a fallacy. The mistake is assuming every valuable asset must generate cash flow.

I want to be clear: I am not arguing against someone who chooses to use this model for their investment strategy. It works. My argument is against those who say it is the only strategy. This is the same fallacy that Mario Sr. makes. Plumbing works, but it is not the only path.

Value Investors and Bitcoin

Many value investors believe that Bitcoin is worthless because it does not produce income. They take their model of investing and judge Bitcoin according to it. And Bitcoin does not generate revenue.

But their model does not account for many assets that hold value even though they don’t produce revenue. These include:

• Precious metals like gold

• Beachfront property

• Collectibles like baseball cards

• Bitcoin

• Cash

Notice the last one?

Cash.

The very thing income-producing assets are meant to create is a non-productive asset that produces nothing and loses value over time. Its value is in its liquidity and optionality. And cash is what value investing generates: a non-productive asset.

The Alternative to Value Investing

Value investing is a valid approach, but it’s not the only one. Central banks don’t buy stocks; they buy gold, and the rich often use watches and collectibles as a store of value. In fact, all of the assets on my list are stores of value that aren’t directly tied to the stock market. They don’t need to produce income because their value comes from their history, utility, and supply.

Many investors follow a strategy focused on storing value instead of earning more money. Their path is not wrong; it’s just different. Kind of like Baby Mario’s desire to cook mushrooms instead of continuing his dad’s plumbing business.

This strategy has been successful as well. Since 2019:

• Gold is up 3x

• Beachfront property has nearly doubled since COVID

• Rolex watches are up 50–150%

• Pokémon cards have gone up 2–5x

• Bitcoin is up 6–15x, depending on when you bought in 2019 2

And none of them produce income.

Conclusion

Value investing is still a good strategy and has been wildly successful for Warren Buffett and many other investors. Like Mario’s plumbing business, it is a winning strategy, but it’s not the only one and judging an asset purely on revenue generation is a mistake. That’s how you miss 3x gains with gold in just a few years. And it’s also how you miss 10x gains from Bitcoin.

If you prefer the value investing strategy, that’s fine. Just don’t be like Mario Sr. and keep Baby Mario from following his dreams.

Final Word

Sometimes there is more than one good choice. Don’t let your direction keep others from doing their own.

"All roads lead to Rome." — Ancient Proverb

Bitcoin Myths in Progress

I can’t believe I’ve already written ten articles in the Bitcoin Myths series (including Bitcoin Myths Zero). The goal is to build the most comprehensive collection of Bitcoin myths possible and answer the most common objections. Once finished, this will become a full book.

If this series has been helpful to you, consider supporting the project and getting early access to the book by becoming a paid subscriber to Crypto Confidence.

Disclaimer:

The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

Crypto is entering a new phase as the CLARITY Act, tokenized stocks, and institutional adoption push blockchain deeper into mainstream finance. But while Wall Street builds on crypto rails, the industry’s weird, anti-institutional, and experimental side is not disappearing. In this episode, Jared Busby joins Tyler from WealthNWisdom to break down the CLARITY Act battle, tokenized equities, mining pressure, AI-driven fraud wars, and why crypto still refuses to become “normal.”

You can find Tyler’s Substack here:

WealthNWisdom

Insights That Aren't Boring We are on a mission to empower people by making the worlds of economics, finance, and business easier to understand. Join us twice a week as we cover insightful topics to help you understand what's going on in today's economy.

By Tyler k Kreiling

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 4

Crypto has a problem with authority, but it’s not the SEC. It’s that people don’t know where the truth lives for any given project. Is it on X? YouTube? Discord? We lack authority. And when I say authority, I don’t mean Cartman pretending to be a cop.

I mean the place you go to check official announcements, roadmaps, and the philosophy of the project.

Lack of Authority Comes From Lack of Canonicity

Most crypto projects don’t have an official space for their announcements, philosophy, and leadership. And even if they do, they choose the wrong platform. So they paste everything everywhere. On X. On Discord. On LinkedIn. Wherever growth looks easiest.

For many crypto projects, these posts are everywhere but nowhere at the same time. I can’t easily look up old posts that explain roadmaps, product announcements, or the philosophy of the founders. I have no idea if the project has been consistent or if it changes its mind with every fad.

These projects fall into the Cartman trap. They think posting announcements creates authority the same way a badge does. But just like you have to actually be a cop for the badge to matter, your announcements need canon to have authority.

Many projects lack authority because they lack canonicity. Authority is the place people go for trusted information. Canon is the permanent record of it.

So canon leads to authority and authority leads to canon. And you must have both to have either.

In practice, many projects start with canon by writing out what they plan to do, then fail to update it as things change. Canon is one of the easiest things to let go because it doesn’t show immediate results. Almost no one brags about reading the whitepaper or the docs. In reality, maybe 1% do.

But that 1% makes or breaks a community. They care. They quote Satoshi 10 years later. They argue about Ethereum’s direction based on something Vitalik wrote five years ago. They understand where the project is going.

Without them, the project gets blown around by whatever fad shows up next.

To see how this works in practice, look at the Satoshi whitepaper. 1 It’s authoritative and static, yet people still quote it to explain Bitcoin’s purpose today. More than 16 years later, it still matters because it serves as canon for the Bitcoin community.

Why Most Platforms Can’t Function as Canon

Most platforms crypto projects rely on lack canonicity. This is because they:

• Lack a permanent, stable archive

• Lack a structured timeline

• Make it difficult to navigate past posts

• Are not easily linkable

• Are not designed for long-form content

• Are not fully controlled by the project

• Are not designed for revisiting

• Lack signal control

Let’s use X as an example of a platform people think will work for canon, but doesn’t. At first glance, it should. Posts are permanent and part of a stable archive. The timeline runs from recent to past. Every post has a link. The project controls the account. And with a paid account, posts can even be long-form.

But it all breaks down once you see how X actually works. In practice, users can only scroll back a few years at most, and even then it’s a mess. There’s no easy way to search old posts by date or keyword.

Long-form posts are a recent addition, and users aren’t accustomed to reading them. Most of all, X has poor signal control. Commenters and reposts can easily overwhelm the original message.

Other platforms suffer from similar problems:

• LinkedIn

• Telegram

• Discord

• TikTok

• YouTube (probably the closest to canon on this list, but it still falls short)

• Instagram

• Facebook

Most platforms are built for attention, engagement, and velocity. Canon requires memory, structure, and continuity. These platforms are not designed for that.

Let’s apply these rules to other platforms. How does Substack perform?

• Has a permanent, stable archive

• Has a structured timeline

• Makes it easy to navigate past posts

• Easily linkable

• Designed for long-form content

• Fully controlled by the project (author)

• Designed for revisiting

• Strong signal control

Substack works extremely well as canon. But what about other options?

• Medium allows long-form content but fails as canon because the platform controls visibility and lacks a strong navigable structure.

• A personal website offers full control, long-form content, and flexible structure, making it the strongest form of canon. However, it requires intentional design and maintenance. Without discipline, it quickly becomes difficult to navigate.

• Mirror.xyz offers long-form content and strong permanence through onchain publishing but lacks structured navigation and isn’t designed for revisiting or organizing ideas.

• Notion enables structured, long-form, and highly navigable content but depends entirely on user discipline and lacks strong distribution and permanence guarantees, making it fragile over time.

In reality, there aren’t many good ways to build canon. Mirror could improve over time, and Notion might as well with the right upgrades. Medium has leaned into distribution and is unlikely to become a true canon system.

Right now, the strongest options are Substack and a well-designed personal website.

Conclusion

Everyone has a favorite project and wants its community to succeed. But long-term health requires authority and canonicity.

So the question is simple: does your project have canon? Most don’t. But it’s easy to tell.

A real project will have a website with regularly updated, easy-to-navigate posts, or a Substack. Others try to use Medium or Notion, which is better than nothing, but still falls short.

I’m not saying a project with poor or nonexistent canon can’t have short-term success. But if you want a coin you can hold for years, canon is essential.

Authority can’t be claimed. It has to be earned. And it can’t be earned without canonicity.

Without canon, true believers and even the founders lose track of why the project exists in the first place. The real question is whether the vision from year one still lives in year five.

Canon is what makes that possible.

Final Thought

Where is the canon for your favorite crypto project?

"The palest ink is better than the best memory." — Chinese proverb

Crypto Confidence School

Understanding crypto communities is only one piece of the puzzle. You also need to understand tokenomics, wallets, protocols, and how the system actually works.

If you want hands-on guidance instead of guessing your way through it, check out Crypto Confidence School.

Disclaimer:

The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 3

It was just another day, until he looked into the water.

January 1848. James Marshall stood along the South Fork of the American River in northern California. He was building Sutter’s Mill and inspecting the channel to make sure the water flowed properly and the ditch wasn’t eroding. Then something caught his eye. Yellow flakes.

Could it be gold?

After some initial testing, gathering the flakes and hammering them together, Marshall confirmed it was gold. He brought the discovery to John Sutter, 1 who owned the land and the mill. Neither of them wanted this to get out. They knew exactly what it would bring.

They tried to keep it quiet.

They failed.

Word spread, and within a year more than 80,000 men poured into California, tearing through the land in search of the same gold Marshall had found in the water.

Between 1848 and 1855, miners extracted nearly 750,000 pounds of gold,2 worth over $50 billion in today’s money. A few flakes in the water became a flood of new supply.

The Problem of Debasement

Finding gold is one problem, but what you do with it is another.

In the 1300s, in Cairo, Mansa Musa passed through the city on his pilgrimage to Mecca, handing out gold along the way. Some accounts say he brought 100 camels, each carrying 300 pounds, and gave it away freely. 3 The city celebrated as wealth seemed to appear out of nowhere.

He believed it was a blessing.

But something went wrong. There was suddenly too much gold in Cairo. Prices shifted, and gold wasn’t worth what people thought it was. It got so bad that Mansa Musa tried to undo it, borrowing gold at high interest just to pull it back out of the market. 4 The damage didn’t stay in Cairo. It spread throughout the known world.

Mansa Musa’s problem wasn’t a lack of generosity. It was flooding the market with gold.

Gold’s Supply

After everything that happened in Cairo, you might think gold is everywhere.

It isn’t. It feels that way because we see it so often.

We wear it on our wedding rings. It’s in our jewelry and our electronics. It’s been mined for thousands of years. And yet, if all the gold in the world were gathered together, it would fit inside a small apartment building in Manhattan, only about seven stories tall. You could walk around it in just a few minutes.

But the supply of gold isn’t fixed.

Since 1950, roughly two-thirds of all the gold ever mined has been created, and the supply is still growing. 5 There are entire asteroids made of metal, like 16 Psyche, orbiting between Mars and Jupiter. 6 We know it is rich in iron, and metals like gold are often found alongside it. It hasn’t been fully explored.

We don’t know what’s there. What we do know is this: there is no ceiling on how much gold could exist.

The 49ers showed how quickly gold can be found. Mansa Musa showed what happens when too much of it enters the market. If miners ever discovered a large deposit of gold on an asteroid like Psyche 16, the impact could be similar. Gold’s supply is never final.

Could Bitcoin’s supply face the same problem?

Bitcoin’s Supply

We don’t know how much gold exists. But we do know exactly how much Bitcoin there is, and ever will be. Bitcoin’s supply is fixed at 21 million coins, all of which will be mined by the year 2140. Even more surprising, about 99% of that supply will already be mined by 2032. 7

The Bitcoin gold rush is mostly over.

Instead of being scattered by the laws of physics, Bitcoin’s supply is set by math and code. The schedule is predictable. New Bitcoin is created roughly every ten minutes, and the amount issued is cut in half every four years in an event called the halving.

Some argue Bitcoin’s supply could be changed at any time because it’s just code.

But changing it would require overwhelming agreement across the network. Developers would have to rewrite it, miners would have to adopt it, and full nodes would have to accept it.

Even if Bitcoin’s supply were changed, everyone would see it. The new rules would be public, and the supply schedule would be clear.

Bitcoin’s supply is never a mystery.

Conclusion

Both gold and Bitcoin are scarce, but Bitcoin’s supply is known while gold’s supply is governed by the laws of physics. For the first time in human history, we have a valuable asset with a fully transparent and predictable supply. The problem of uncertain supply has been solved, not by nature, but by code and mathematics.

Final Word

Nobody but God knows how much gold exists.

“As computers get faster and the total computing proof-of-work applied to creating bitcoins increases, the difficulty increases proportionally to keep the total new production constant. Thus, it is known in advance how many new bitcoins will be created every year in the future.”
― Satoshi Nakamoto

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

Most Americans think they understand their own country. They don’t. They’ve never actually traveled it.

I remember making a bucket list, and one of my goals was to travel to all 50 states. I’ve now been to 46, which still surprises me. One day, I told my friend Tyler about it, and he asked why. I had to stop and think.

At first, it was just practical. I had already been to 35 states by accident, so finishing the last 15 felt easy. But the real reason was that I had already seen the benefits. Traveling across the country exposed me to different landscapes, cultures, cities, and small towns. More importantly, it helped me understand the country in a way the media never could, or someone living in one city their whole life never will.

Yes, I had read history books and studied maps, but that is not the same as being there. Walking through Manhattan and Brooklyn, you see how people actually live. Driving across Wyoming, you feel the isolation and the resilience. Standing on a mountain in Colorado, you realize how small you are. You don’t get it until you experience it.

Crypto is the same way. You can read the maps, study the history, and understand the theory, but that is not the same as being there. Making a trade on Uniswap, sending a friend stablecoins, holding your own Bitcoin, you start to understand how it actually works. You don’t get it until you experience it.

My journey into crypto followed the same pattern. At first, it was just practical. I explored the space, started writing guides, and kept going. I did not set out to create Crypto Confidence. Eventually, I had gone far enough that adding this project to my bucket list felt natural.

What Makes Crypto Confidence Different

Crypto is a lot of things. It is the self-sovereignty of Bitcoin, the smart contract technology of Ether, instant global payments through stablecoins, and a memecoin casino that distracts the world. Most people do not understand why crypto exists or the problems the cypherpunk movement set out to solve. They also lack a framework for how to evaluate it. Like the United States, crypto is hard to understand if you have not explored it. If you have never used it, you may think you understand it, but in reality, you don’t.

There are plenty of people writing about crypto news, trade ideas, and political takes. That has its place, and I follow many of them, but Crypto Confidence is not built to compete in that space. It comes from a different angle. I studied philosophy and theology, worked in the oil fields of North Dakota, and have been in the crypto industry since 2018. That combination allows me to give people both a clear worldview for why crypto matters and a practical roadmap for how to use it.

Since the 2008 Great Recession, the cracks in our financial system have become impossible to ignore. Billionaires get bailed out with taxpayer money when they fail, but keep the profits when they succeed. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is over 120%, and government financial surveillance increases while the government continues to let fraud and waste destroy our financial system. The road out of the current system is paved in Bitcoin, but it’s a windy journey. This is why I created Crypto Confidence so newcomers can understand the terrain.

More Than a Roadmap

But an accurate roadmap is not enough if you never leave your house. If all I did was study maps and read history, I would not truly understand the country. Crypto is the same. It is one thing to understand why Bitcoin is a great store of value. It is another to actually use it.

I will go one step further. You don’t understand the map unless you travel the road. If you want to understand crypto, you have to use it. But most people either never start or get lost along the way without a guide. My own journey would have been easier if I had someone to show me how to use an exchange, a wallet, a DEX, and more.

Learning crypto requires actually using it, and that is hard to do on your own. It is easy to make mistakes, take unnecessary risks, or never start at all. That is why I created Crypto Confidence School. It is a place where people can learn step by step, ask questions, and get guidance along the way. Once you experience the sovereignty of a non-custodial wallet for yourself, it changes how you see finance. It is like standing at the Grand Canyon. You can look at pictures all day, but it is not the same as seeing it with your own eyes.

Journey’s End

I have been on a long crypto journey, but I realized my bucket list is not complete until I help others understand its purpose and start their own journey. Sometimes, what makes a trip worthwhile is who you travel with, not just the arrival. If you are ready to understand crypto for yourself, the journey is open. The next step is yours.

Final Word

I appreciate each and every one of you.

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts." — Mark Twain

DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The author is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing in this article constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency, gold, or other asset. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky, and you could lose all of your invested capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author operates a paid cryptocurrency education course and may hold positions in assets discussed.

Part 2 →

AI makes the future of work look scary. Headlines constantly warn that “jobs will disappear.” Many predict that Universal Basic Income will become necessary for survival. In this vision of the future, only billionaires make money, while everyone else lives at the goodwill of the government. The government taxes AI and redistributes it back to the helpless masses, who have nothing to do with their lives but watch Netflix and play video games.

But what if these predictions never come true? What if AI creates more jobs than it destroys, and work isn’t going anywhere? In fact, the CEOs banking on mass layoffs may not only be mistaken, but setting themselves up for failure.

This series is dedicated to showing why the AI doomer scenario is wrong. I am not betting on AI failing or succeeding. If AI fails, then the future of work barely changes and the doomers are wrong by default. The real question is what happens if AI succeeds. This series assumes it does and argues that its success will create more jobs than we can imagine.

AI Agents to the Rescue?

Chatbots like ChatGPT and Claude are just the beginning of the AI revolution. The prompts they handle can speed up research, simplify writing, and even generate images from a short description. But that’s not what transforms the world. Real change comes from AI agents that act on their own, run 24/7, and handle a wide range of tasks. The arrival of OpenClaw 1 looks much closer to what the AI doomers are imagining: an agent that can operate independently and doesn’t need you.

The real test isn’t chatbots. It’s whether AI agents can run on their own. If they can, then the doomer scenario becomes plausible. And if anyone should be able to trust an AI agent to take over real work, it’s someone like Summer Yue, Meta’s Director of AI Safety and Alignment. Right? 2

But Summer found out the hard way that OpenClaw can’t be left alone. She tested it on her personal email first. No problems. So she moved it to her business inbox. That’s when all hell broke loose. It immediately started trashing thousands of emails. She told it to stop. It didn’t. She had to run to her computer and shut it down herself. Fun times.

To see how this actually played out, take a look at her conversation with OpenClaw.

Who wouldn’t want AI to nuke all their old emails? None of it’s important, right?

At least OpenClaw said it was sorry. It promised it would never do it again. Pinky promise.

AI Will Get Better. Right?

Of course it will. AI agents will improve and likely reach mass adoption. But what level of failure is anyone willing to tolerate? Would you install something like OpenClaw into your business email? What if it were right 99.9% of the time? What about 99.99%? Would that be enough? Or would you still feel the need to keep an eye on it?

Now imagine installing OpenClaw into an X-ray machine or a heart monitor. Or putting it in charge of BlackRock’s biggest funds. Or making it the spokesman for your family business. No need to watch it. No need to check its work. What could possibly go wrong? It would never do anything out of line. Right?

Now imagine AI agents running millions of small businesses without any human supervision. There are an estimated 300 million businesses worldwide, so imagine if only 10% adopted AI. That’s 30 million agents.

Even at a 99.999% success rate, 30 million agents making 100 decisions a day would still produce 30,000 failures. And that’s before we even consider hospitals, banks, governments, or personal users.

Welcome to the AI Baby-Sitters Club.

And remember, today’s AI agents fail up to 63% of the time on complex tasks, even assuming only a 1% error rate per step. 3 That’s nowhere near 99.99%.

If you have any doubts about AI being able to run on its own without monitoring, then you already understand why the human element isn’t going anywhere. If we can’t trust agents to operate freely, someone has to oversee them. And that person must be an expert in the domain the AI is working in and know when it’s not behaving correctly. That’s not a disappearing job. That’s a high-paying one.

Conclusion

The purpose of this article is not to convince, but to build intuition for why humans are still needed. For now, just consider what could go wrong if we allow AI to operate without oversight, and begin to see why the human element isn’t going anywhere.

Final Word

AI won’t replace you. But someone using AI might.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." — H.L. Mencken

Join Crypto Confidence

If you’re thinking about where all of this is going, you’re not alone. One of the biggest shifts happening right now is that understanding these systems is becoming a skill in itself. That’s a big part of what I focus on in Crypto Confidence, where I teach people how to actually use AI and crypto instead of just reacting to them.

If you want to learn how to operate in this new world, you can join Crypto Confidence here.

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 7 Part 9 →

Louisville, Kentucky is home to the Kentucky Derby, the “two most exciting minutes in sports.” Every year, people from around the world flood the city to watch a single horse race and get rip-roaring drunk. For one week, Louisville transforms. Restaurants are packed, hotels are sold out, downtown is chaos, and traffic is unbearable. But the money is glorious.

Louisville’s economy runs on the Derby. In a single week, hotels can generate around 10% of their annual profits. 1 Restaurants often sell a month’s worth of food in just a few days. And if you have any kind of side hustle, this is your opportunity. For one week, the entire city gets an economic shot in the arm.

So no matter how much locals wish the drunks would go home, the money is too good to pass up.

The Problem of Green Energy

Green Energy is a lot like Louisville, Kentucky. It can be profitable on its own, but it needs an extra boost to truly thrive. Wind, solar, and hydro all share the same underlying challenge: their output depends on conditions they can’t control.

• Solar depends on the weather. 2

• Wind depends on storms. 3

• Water depends on snowmelt.

So what happens when they produce too much energy? The grid can’t absorb it, and current battery systems aren’t efficient enough to store it at scale. As a result, excess energy is wasted and profits are lost.

Green energy loses money when:

• Energy is wasted.

• Too much supply crashes prices.

• Power is stranded far from where it’s needed.

Green energy optimists point to batteries as the solution. And yes, after billions of dollars and decades of research, they have improved. But we still cannot economically store days, let alone seasons, of excess energy. 4

Bitcoin to the Rescue?

What if green energy had a “Kentucky Derby” event? An economic shot in the arm that generates more profits? A buyer of last resort that shows up when needed and leaves the moment it is no longer needed.

Bitcoin mining is perfect for this job. Miners are portable and only need power and internet, so they can operate in remote locations. They can turn on and off instantly, using electricity only when it is available. When there is excess energy, miners put it to work and generate revenue. When energy is scarce, they shut down just as quickly. It is the Kentucky Derby effect, but the drunks leave the moment they are not wanted.

But why would miners shut down? Don’t they want to make money at all times? Of course they do. But when electricity demand is high, prices rise and mining becomes unprofitable. When there is excess energy, that power is sold at a discount, which creates an opportunity for miners. The power plant may not earn as much as it would during peak demand, but something is better than nothing.

Bitcoin Mining is Like Water

It is true that Bitcoin uses a lot of electricity. By many estimates, it consumes as much power as a country like Argentina. 5 But how it uses that power is not what most people think.

Did you know that some estimates put over 50% of Bitcoin mining on renewable energy? 6 And that since 2020, estimates suggest it has grown from roughly 35% to potentially as high as 60%? 7 This does not mean Bitcoin mining is fully green or never uses fossil fuels. But the trend is clear. Mining follows the cheapest energy, and that often leads to underutilized or stranded renewable sources that need economic support.

Bitcoin mining is like water. It always seeks the lowest place (or in this case, the lowest price). 8 The industry is highly competitive and pushes costs as high as possible. Mining does not survive where electricity is expensive. As a result, successful miners are forced to find the cheapest energy available. And some of the cheapest energy in the world is stranded or wasted green energy.

Conclusion

Many environmental activists oppose Bitcoin mining because of the energy it uses. But green energy needs a buyer of last resort for its excess power. Without buyers like this, many projects are less profitable and depend on government subsidies. If solar, wind, and hydro are going to replace oil and coal, they need to stand on their own economically. Bitcoin makes this possible by providing the “Derby effect.” It brings in needed money and leaves when it is no longer needed.

Final Word

Happy upcoming Earth Day!

"Nothing in the world is as soft and yielding as water. Yet for dissolving the hard and inflexible, nothing can surpass it." — Laozi

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 3 Part 5 →

I used to work in the oil fields in North Dakota, and you would be surprised how many guys I knew who were missing a finger. It was scary.

One rig I worked on had a series of safety signs about it.

The first sign said, “This machine has no brain. You must use your own.”

The next sign showed a guy missing his middle finger. The caption said, “Now how will he be able to tell people what he really thinks?”

The next sign showed a man missing his thumb. It said, “Not a thumbs-up situation, is it?”

Nothing makes you appreciate your hands quite like imagining them getting smashed by a thousand-pound pipe. And it also makes you realize something else. Hands work because all five fingers are there. Lose one and the hand still exists, but using tools suddenly becomes a lot harder.

Fortunately, I never lost any digits, which means I can still type my Crypto Confidence articles just fine.

But thinking about those signs got me thinking about something else. The crypto community needs five fingers too.

Crypto’s Five Fingers

Successful crypto communities have five fingers.

It’s possible to operate with less, but their grip on the community is much more likely to slip when a bear market smacks the hand.

The strongest communities have all five.

1. Growth/Discovery. This is the obvious one. It’s how people find crypto projects online. Think about a TikTok video or an X post that grabs your attention and sends you down a rabbit hole. That’s discovery.

   If people don’t know the project exists, nothing else matters.

2. Networking. This doesn’t mean gaining followers or attracting users. It means building relationships that help the project grow. Think partnerships, integrations, investors, advisors, and other builders in the ecosystem.

3. Learning. These are posts primarily meant to educate users. The best ones are usually long-form articles or deep YouTube videos. Without knowledge, the people perish.

4. Chat. People need a place to talk about the project in real time and voice their thoughts to community leaders. Without this, there is no community connection, and complaints spill into the comments on X instead.

5. Canon. This finger is missing most often. Users need a place where posts become the permanent record of the project and the official source of truth.

   It creates a timeline the community can go back through to understand the project’s vision and philosophy.

Which Social Media Platforms?

Different platforms specialize in different fingers. Here are some of the most common and what they do best.

• X. Best for discovery. It can also support some networking and learning when used well.

• TikTok. Great for discovery and not much else.

• LinkedIn. Excels at networking and discovery.

• YouTube. Excellent for learning and also strong for discovery.

• Medium. Works well for learning and canon, though distribution can be inconsistent.

• Substack. Great for learning and canon. The email distribution helps people actually see the content, while the blog archive makes it permanent and easy to revisit.

• Discord. One of the major chat platforms. Its structured channels make it easy to organize conversations, though that structure can also make projects treat it like a support desk.

• Telegram. The other major chat platform. Conversations move faster and feel more like a public square, which often attracts a more old-school crypto crowd.

• Website blog / Email newsletter. Can function as canon if the project maintains it consistently.

• Mirror.xyz. A crypto-native platform designed for canon.

• GitHub. Canon for developers.

• Reddit. A mix of discovery and chat, though the communities usually control the conversation rather than the project itself.

This list is a quick way to see whether a project has all five fingers. For example, imagine a project is only active on X, YouTube, and Discord. That means it has discovery, learning, and chat, but networking may be weak and canon may be missing entirely.

When you evaluate a crypto project, pay attention to the platforms it uses and whether all five fingers are present. If one is missing, that is something to keep in mind.

Bitcoin The Classic Example

Bitcoin launched in 2009 so its tools were completely different but it still had all five fingers.

1. Discovery. Bitcoin’s discovery started when Satoshi emailed the Bitcoin whitepaper to the cypherpunk mailing list in 2008. 1 Early awareness spread through email forwarding, forum discussions, and word of mouth within that small cryptography community.

2. Networking. The same mailing list also functioned as Bitcoin’s first networking layer. The cypherpunk community already contained cryptographers, developers, and thinkers interested in digital money. That existing network gave Bitcoin its first collaborators, critics, and builders.

3. Learning. Bitcoin’s first learning resource was the Bitcoin whitepaper itself. 2Unlike today’s crypto projects, the early audience didn’t need beginner tutorials. The cypherpunks reading it were already familiar with digital cash proposals, cryptography, and the problems Bitcoin was trying to solve.

4. Chat. Early conversation about Bitcoin took place on forums like Bitcointalk.org. 3This gave the community a place to ask questions, debate ideas, and discuss the project as it evolved. It also allowed users to complain about problems, suggest improvements, and even ask Satoshi himself for help and clarification.

5. Canon. Bitcoin’s canon formed through the original whitepaper and the archived discussions on Bitcointalk.org. Because those conversations are preserved, people can still comb through them today to see how the project evolved and understand its guiding principles.

Looking back, it’s remarkable how simple Bitcoin’s tools were. An email list and a message board carried the entire early community.

Conclusion

If you’re considering holding a token long term, evaluate the strength of the community behind it. Make sure the project’s hand is strong and every finger is accounted for. When the market turns, a project missing a finger could lose its grip.

Final Thought

Just as I never thought about my fingers until I contemplated losing them, I never thought much about crypto communities until I realized how fragile they can be.

“The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” — Aristotle.

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

Part 1 →

Every year my wife and I send Christmas cards to our friends and family. We buy a stack of envelopes and cards, write heartfelt messages (with a pen!), and sign our names. My wife’s signature is that of a beautiful artist, because she actually is one. Mine is sloppier than a third grader’s, but together they make it clear the card came from both of us.

Of course, we could send Christmas emails instead. I remember when email Christmas cards were popular in the late 90s. They were animated, funny, and I used to laugh at them. But does anyone still use those? I don’t.

That doesn’t mean email isn’t important. I use email far more often than I send letters. In fact, you are probably reading this in your inbox right now.

Most of us live with one foot in the old world and one foot in the new. Email exploded in the past thirty years, yet the post office remains. Digital didn’t eliminate the old system. It added another layer.

The same is true for Bitcoin and gold. They are not competitors. They are complementary forms of hard money. Gold isn’t going anywhere, but Bitcoin adds the second signature needed on the Christmas card of sound money.

The Problem With Government Currency

Some people may wonder why we need Bitcoin or gold at all when we already have a strong world reserve currency like the U.S. dollar. But the dollar relies on wise management from the Federal Reserve and the federal government. The Federal Reserve must manage the money supply and interest rates responsibly, while the federal government must control spending and keep the budget under control.

When a government overspends, rather than allowing it to default, the central bank prints money to inflate away the debt. If this process is not brought under control, it leads to hyperinflation. 1

Rather than relying on governments and central banks to manage currency wisely, we need forms of hard money they cannot alter.

Bitcoin Is Like Email

The need for a hard digital currency is self-evident. In the United States, over 80% of payments are digital. 2 Yet they rely on an inflating dollar backed by a government with an out-of-control spending problem. Gold cannot be spent online without using an intermediary, which creates counterparty risk. Someone must store and manage the gold on your behalf. Bitcoin solves this problem by providing a hard digital currency for the 21st century.

Here are some of the things Bitcoin makes possible:

• Online payments and international business with instant, final settlement.

• A digital currency without counterparty risk.

• A payment network that is not controlled by any government or megacorporation.

• A digital asset with a limited supply that cannot be created with a few taps on a keyboard (I am looking at you, Federal Reserve). 3

This does not mean traditional in-person payments will disappear; after all, we still send Christmas cards.

Gold Is Like Paper

Bitcoin will become the dominant system for making digital payments. But gold is here to stay. Here is why gold still matters:

• Governments will want to back up their wealth with a traditional asset, “just in case.” Just as important files are backed up with paper copies, nations will want physical gold reserves in case digital systems fail.

• Gold will always be needed for industrial, artistic, ceremonial, and medical uses.

• There is an emotional weight to holding a tangible asset that has held value for thousands of years.

• Some people will always reject modern technology and refuse to use digital payment systems. If cash ever disappears, traditional metals like gold will take its place.

Why We Need Both Bitcoin and Gold

To truly escape government currency and the problems it creates, we need both Bitcoin and gold. If we only have gold, we eventually end up relying on fiat currency again. The problems with gold include:

• It’s heavy and difficult to move, which makes international payments impractical.

• Online payments require a third party to hold your gold, creating counterparty risk.

• It does not divide well for small purchases (imagine buying a piece of chewing gum with gold).

This is why fiat currency developed in the first place. Gold could not solve modern payment problems on its own, so fiat systems emerged to fill the gap.

But if we only have Bitcoin, we face a different problem. We would have no way to opt out of the digital world and no backup plan if something goes wrong with AI, the internet, or digital infrastructure.

The ideal system uses both. Bitcoin solves the problems of digital payments, while gold provides a physical fallback. Together they remove the need for fiat currency and open the door to rolling back government control over the economy.

Conclusion

By holding both gold and Bitcoin, we get the best of both worlds: hard physical money and hard digital money.

In the past, we had to rely on banks and other counterparties to hold our wealth, giving governments significant control and creating opportunities for others to profit at the expense of ordinary people.

That system is no longer inevitable. A society that embraces Bitcoin while still holding some gold can move beyond it. Gold and Bitcoin are the two signatures on the Christmas card of sound money.

Final Word

Don’t fight over what’s better. Just hold both.

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." — Henry Ford

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

I am writing this from an undisclosed McDonald’s, and I just spotted Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and Do Kwon eating Big Macs next to a Ronald McDonald statue.

Wait a moment. Alex Mashinsky just showed up.

I am now sitting in a McDonald’s with the three biggest frauds in crypto who have ever lived.

No way. Gary Gensler just walked in. Now the biggest fraud in crypto is sitting in my McDonald’s with all the other frauds.

What are they doing? I need to get closer.

Fortunately, I ordered a Happy Meal. The toy is a spy camera and recorder. I might be able to hear them if I can just get behind the Ronald McDonald statue.

Alright I made it… and they spotted me. This is a problem.

Well They Locked Me Up

They locked me in the janitor’s closet at the McDonald’s, but they were kind enough to tell me their evil plans and give me another Happy Meal. They’re like James Bond villains, just way more nerdy.

SBF loved telling me how he and Do Kwon broke out of prison. Apparently, P. Diddy helped them escape but got left behind. No one seemed that upset about it. It was a really boring story to listen to. Especially when SBF read his “Dear P. Diddy” letter out loud to me. He did voices, finger puppets, and a lot of crying.

It was pure torture.

All of them, except Gary, are fleeing the country. He gave each of them a fake ID and $100,000 so they can start over. They already have a new business idea.

Kenya.

Apparently that’s the place to start a company and buy a supervillain mansion.

Most importantly, they’re not going into crypto this time. Their new scam is selling tulips. It worked really well in the 1600s, and they think they can pull it off again.

They will claim to have bred special colors of tulips, but in reality, they just spray paint the flowers. Do Kwon looked at me and said, “People are so stupid they will believe anything.”

At that point, I tried my hardest to break down the door and foil their evil plan.

But I couldn’t get out.

It’s an electronic door that only opens when the ice cream machine is online.

Gary just laughed at me and said, “No one will ever believe you.” Then he told me he’s getting a cut of all their future businesses and is helping them set up the Kenyan Prince Scam. It’s like the Nigerian Prince scam, but better.

Alex Mashinsky came up with the business model. And you know if he comes up with a business idea, it’s pure gold.

I tried to stop them, but the McDonald’s closet was just too strong. It took hours before the janitor let me out. And he wouldn’t do it unless I donated to Ronald McDonald House first.

It was a horrible sacrifice to give him that nickel.

But someone needs to call the police before they get away with it.

You believe me, don’t you?

Final Word

Happy April Fools Day!

← Part 6 Part 8 →

I went to Starbucks and ordered a macchiato. I offered a gold coin. She refused it. I offered a $100 bill. She wouldn’t accept it. Store policy.

I guess neither of those have value if I can’t buy coffee with them.

The Great “Coffee Myth”

Many people believe that because Bitcoin is not used for everyday payments like buying coffee, it has no economic value and does not function like money. Paul Krugman famously said “There is essentially no legitimate use for crypto… Fewer than 2% of Americans have ever made a payment in crypto."

He makes other claims about speculation, crime, and cult behavior. Those are separate myths and will be addressed in future Bitcoin Myths pieces.

Let’s go back to the coffee shop.

Most people would agree that a gold coin and a $100 bill are all forms of money. Yet everyone would call me a fool for trying to buy coffee with a gold coin. So money is not just a medium of exchange for buying things. It must be something more.

What is Money?

This is a subject you could spend a whole college class on. But traditionally, economists describe three things that money does. 1

1. Store of value. Money preserves purchasing power over time. You earn today and spend tomorrow.

2. Medium of exchange. Money is accepted in trade for goods and services.

3. Unit of account. Money acts as a measuring stick for value.

For something to be money it must be able to do all three, but that doesn’t mean it must do all three equally well.

Let’s see how the U.S. dollar measures up against its own standard.

How the Dollar Stacks Up

The U.S. dollar is a terrible long-term store of value. If you stuffed $1,000 under your mattress in 2015 and came back today, you would have lost over 30% of your purchasing power. Apparently that’s still good enough to qualify as money.

Many businesses are going cashless. 2 Cash carries security risks and most people use debit or credit cards. While cash is legal tender, that only means it must be accepted to settle a debt. A coffee shop selling lattes is not normally collecting on a debt. So does that mean cash is no longer a medium of exchange?

Finally, the dollar is also a weak unit of account over time. The M2 money supply has grown from roughly $12 trillion to over $22 trillion since 2015. 3 When the measuring stick itself keeps expanding, long-term price comparisons become distorted. But an imperfect unit of account does not mean it isn’t a unit of account.

The dollar fails all three tests to varying degrees. It's still money. Perfection isn't required.

Bitcoin Time

Paul’s mistake is pointing to low payment usage and concluding the whole thing has no legitimate use.

If the U.S. dollar, the “greatest currency in the world,” is imperfect in all three monetary functions, why is Bitcoin held to a higher standard? It doesn’t need to be flawless. It just needs to be different. Let’s apply the same test to Bitcoin.

• Bitcoin as a store of value. The dollar melts slowly. Bitcoin swings violently. One steals from you over time. The other keeps you on edge in the short term. Inflation versus volatility. Both imperfect. Neither a reason to pretend it isn’t money.

• Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin struggles as a medium of exchange for in-person transactions. Try paying for groceries with it and you’ll see what I mean. But online? Cross-border? Try moving money on a weekend without a bank in the middle. It shines in places critics conveniently ignore. Struggling in one lane doesn’t mean it fails the test.

• Bitcoin as a unit of account. Try printing your menu in Bitcoin and updating it every second. The dollar is steadier in the short run. But that steadiness hides the constant supply expansion. Bitcoin does the opposite. The price bounces, but the rules don't. No central banker wakes up and decides there should be more of it.

Is it perfect? No. Does it offer something different? Absolutely.

Conclusion

If everyone held the dollar to the same standard Paul holds Bitcoin, we would have abandoned it by now.

Money has never been perfect. It has never been universally adopted overnight. And it has never been defined by whether you can buy a latte with it.

If the coffee test defined money, we’d have to disqualify the $100 bill too.

Final Word

I think it’s time to drink some coffee.

"The trouble with the world is not that people know too little; it's that they know so many things that just aren't so." — Mark Twain

DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The author is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing in this article constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency, gold, or other asset. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky, and you could lose all of your invested capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author operates a paid cryptocurrency education course and may hold positions in assets discussed.

← Part 2 Part 4 →

I was never a very good artist. I don’t have a good eye for color, and my hand isn’t steady enough to draw a straight line. But I enjoyed making art when I was a kid.

One day I sat down to draw a squirrel with a pencil. Halfway through, the lead broke. I didn’t have another pencil or a sharpener.

Oh well. I’ll finish the drawing with a pen.

But the second drawing looked nothing like the first.

The pen forced me to make different choices. The thin lines required more precision. The pencil had allowed me to shade and erase, but the pen took those options away.

Just by choosing a different tool, I ended up making completely different art.

Discord Vs Telegram

One of the most important early choices a crypto project makes is between Discord and Telegram.

Discord and Telegram are both chat apps, but they operate with different philosophies. Telegram is like a group text message on steroids. Information moves fast and the platform feels alive. But it’s messy and overwhelming.

Discord is built around channels and roles, so everything is organized. Long-time users can join a new group and quickly find the conversations that matter. But visible roles make impersonation easier by showing scammers exactly who to copy.

Discord feels like a clubhouse, while Telegram feels like main street. Both provide space for their communities, but in ways that shape them differently.

A crypto project choosing between Discord and Telegram is not making a small choice. They are choosing who will show up first and what kind of community they will have. Discord tends to attract a younger crowd, while Telegram draws more of the OG cypherpunks.

Why New Projects Must Choose

Some projects try to launch both Discord and Telegram so they can be all things to all people. But this approach won’t work.

• Projects have limited manpower. They need to focus on one chat group instead of splitting attention between two.

• When a project is small, new users will naturally choose the group that gets the most attention. Nobody wants to sit in a dead chat.

• The two chat groups will cannibalize each other and make both weaker in the process.

Of course, if the community grows large enough, a project can eventually support both.

Which Do I Like Best?

I like both in theory, but prefer Telegram in practice because no one expects it to handle customer support.

Don’t get me wrong, Discord has better UX and organization. It makes it easy to organize conversations into separate channels. But that is also part of its problem. Discord gives the impression it can handle customer support with ticket systems and help channels. Maybe that works for video games, but in crypto it is a disaster. Discord and Telegram are full of scammers, and impersonators often target people asking for help. 1 Customer support should NEVER happen in Discord or Telegram. It should happen on a website with something like Zendesk.

When founders choose Telegram, they usually understand what it is for: a clubhouse for the community and a way to learn what users are thinking.

Discord just organizes the clubhouse better. But the extra structure tricks founders into thinking it’s sophisticated enough to run customer support, even though it lacks the security to keep users safe.

Conclusion

When evaluating a new crypto project, look at the chat platform they choose.

If they choose Discord, the project wants to be forward thinking but may take the easy route when it comes to customer support. If they choose Telegram, they tend to prefer a more old-school approach.

Both tools can draw the same squirrel. But one of them is a big ugly pencil with a giant eraser, while the other is a fancy pen that spills ink all over the page.

Personally, I would rather look silly than make a mess.

Final Word

Remember: the tool shapes the community in its image.

"We shape our tools, and thereafter our tools shape us." — Marshall McLuhan

Join a Healthy Crypto Community

Crypto Confidence School is a place for people who want to learn crypto, ask good questions, and help build a stronger community. Learn more here.

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

Part 1 →

You’re asleep on a plane somewhere over the South Pacific. You wake up just in time to see the wing tear off. Your stomach drops as the plane hurtles toward the ocean.

Then black.

You open your eyes. You’re alone on a deserted island. There’s a backpack next to you.

What do you hope is inside?

Gold coins? Stock certificates? A hardware wallet loaded with Bitcoin? The deed to a penthouse in New York City?

Or a bottle of water?

The Deserted Island Test

Many people argue that Bitcoin has no value because, on its own, it is worthless. You can’t eat it. You can’t drink it. You can’t make tools out of it.

And that’s true. Without an online network accepting it as payment and store of value, Bitcoin does nothing.

But that’s true of most things we value.

What are you going to do with gold on a deserted island besides an art project? What good are legal property rights if you’re isolated? Who cares about a penthouse in New York City if you’re stranded? The stock market means nothing on Gilligan’s Island. 1

That doesn’t make those things worthless.

It means their value only makes sense inside civilization.

Civilization Value

The things that fetch the highest prices are not survival goods. They are civilizational goods.

For human life, water and air are the most valuable things in the world. Without them, you die. And yet water is cheap. Air is free.

Meanwhile, gold sells for thousands per ounce. It’s the diamond-water paradox.

Some things are valuable because they keep you alive. Others are valuable because civilization covets them.

Civilization and Bitcoin

Civilization is complex. It requires powerful tools to function. It must coordinate labor. It must store wealth. It must transfer value across time and space.

That’s what gold has done for thousands of years. That’s what stock markets do for corporations. This is why property rights exist.

Bitcoin is a new tool for the digital age.

• It is permissionless. Anyone with an internet connection can use it without asking a bank for approval. 2

• It is borderless. A Bitcoin transaction does not care whether you are sending value across the street or across the ocean. 3

• It operates 24/7. There are no banking hours. No weekends. No holidays. 4

• It is censorship resistant. Users who control their private keys control their funds. There is no central administrator who can freeze an account with a phone call. 5

It is not perfect, but it is useful in a world connected by the internet and fragmented by nation-states.

Going Off the Grid?

I have a great uncle who did two tours of duty in Vietnam, wrangled wild horses, lives in the mountains with his own source of electricity and water, rolls his own cigarettes, and is a true cowboy.

He once told my dad, “If things get bad and it’s only the coyotes and cockroaches left, come find me. I’ll be just fine.”

And if anyone is ready for that kind of world, it’s him.

But even he had a job, a pickup truck and a snowmobile that got him off the mountain.

The most prepared man I’ve ever met still lived inside civilization and benefited from the technologies that sustain it.

So the idea that something only has value if it’s useful in total isolation doesn’t make sense.

No one actually lives that way.

Conclusion

Maybe you still believe that Bitcoin is intrinsically worthless.

Fine. By the deserted island standard, so is your 401(k). So is the deed to your property. So is every financial asset in the modern world.

If you truly believe that only what survives total isolation has intrinsic value, then apply that standard consistently. Buy the farm.

But don’t hold Bitcoin to a rule you don’t apply to anything else.

Final Word

We all depend on civilization. The only question is which tools we use to navigate it.

"No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main." — John Donne

DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The author is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing in this article constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency, gold, or other asset. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky, and you could lose all of your invested capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author operates a paid cryptocurrency education course and may hold positions in assets discussed.

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About the Crypto Confidence Podcast

The Crypto Confidence Podcast explores the people, ideas, and technology shaping the future of crypto. Episodes feature conversations with founders, builders, and researchers working across the crypto ecosystem.

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

I remember when I was in college and started lifting weights. On the first day I decided to do both arm and leg day.

I went to bed and slept on the top bunk in my dorm room. It didn’t have a ladder. I just kind of climbed up. The next morning I couldn’t get down. My arms were too tired to lower me and my legs were jello. I ended up halfway jumping off the bed and rolling on the ground. It was pathetic.

But I did get stronger.

The growth didn’t happen when I felt strong. It happened when I couldn’t get off a bunk bed.

Crypto works like that too.

The best things in this space are rarely built when everything feels strong. They are built when the market is exhausted.

Market Downturns Create the Best Software

Nobody likes to see their portfolio shrink but I love to see the crypto community build better software. When the market goes south and the lousy projects get abandoned it creates room for new software and serious projects. The “tourists” leave and the builders stay.

Crypto teams are no longer distracted by the fast money crowd chasing a quick dollar. They can build with a smaller but committed community and focus on shipping something that actually works.

Liquidity does not create demand for crypto. It chases demand. And demand only appears when something new expands what people can actually do. Bull runs are strong when winter produces true breakthroughs. They are weak when money returns and nothing fundamental has changed.

• Ethereum launched in 2015 when Bitcoin was still down more than 80 percent from its 2013 peak and most people had already declared crypto dead. 1

• Uniswap, the exchange that became the backbone of DeFi Summer, was built in late 2018 when the 2017 bubble had already collapsed and capital had dried up. 2

• Important Layer 2s like Base launched in 2023 as a direct response to the triple-digit gas fees that made Ethereum nearly unusable for normal people during the 2021 bull market. 3

• Solana launched in 2020, but its ecosystem was truly tested and rebuilt in 2023 after the FTX collapse cleared out the excess and left only the committed teams. 4

• After FTX imploded, centralized exchanges were forced to strengthen transparency measures, including proof of reserves and clearer disclosures, to rebuild trust in the system. 5

Without the bear market clearing out lousy software the good stuff would never get built. And that good software paves the way for the next bull run. The strength of a bull market is determined by what was built in the winter before it.

• 2017 was explosive because Ethereum’s smart contract system introduced something fundamentally new.

• 2021 was powerful because DeFi gave people useful financial tools.

• 2024 was thinner because much of the cycle leaned on scaling existing systems rather than introducing new breakthroughs.

The strength of the next bull run is being decided right now by who stays and builds.

What’s Next?

Here are some areas being built right now that I believe will shape the next bull run.

1. Real World Assets such as tokenized stocks, bonds, and gold are already being implemented by major institutions like BlackRock and explored by exchanges like the NYSE. Capital markets are beginning to move on-chain. RWAs are the trojan horse. They will be permissioned and regulated, but they still settle on public blockchain infrastructure. That moves trillions of dollars onto crypto rails and normalizes blockchain settlement at the highest levels of finance. Once capital is native to these rails, liquidity has fewer reasons to leave. 6

2. AI agents are emerging that can trade, lend, borrow, and move capital on-chain without constant human input. They could manage treasuries, pay suppliers, collect revenue, and deploy capital around the clock. Crypto may become the financial infrastructure that allows AI to run businesses.

3. Privacy remains one of crypto’s unsolved problems. Monero proved it can be done. The next breakthrough will have to make privacy usable at scale without cutting itself off from the broader ecosystem.

4. Most blockchains are trying to be everything. Very few are trying to be excellent at one thing. A chain built specifically for gaming or small business could pull crypto into new use cases instead of keeping it confined to finance.

The building continues. Somewhere a small team is solving a real problem. Once they are ready to launch their code will change the world.

Final Word

Winter is when the work gets done.

"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now."— Chinese Proverb

Speaking of Building in Bear Market…

Are you trying to build your portfolio while prices are down? Smart move. But if you’re new to crypto, don’t do it alone.

Join Crypto Confidence School and learn how to use crypto tools, build a portfolio, and make the most of the winter before the next market wakes up.

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 5 Part 7 →

In 2014 CZ the founder of Binance sold his apartment and put all the proceeds into Bitcoin.1 He bought around 800 Bitcoin and today is easily worth $52 million dollars! 2

He took a big risk and got a big reward.

Scoffers will look at Bitcoin hodlers and say “If Bitcoin is so great why don’t you do the same thing”?

But they leave out CZ’s situation.

• He was an early member of Blockchain.info at the time with a lucrative salary.

• Had built high frequency trading systems and had in demand skills

If Bitcoin went to zero, it would have hurt but it would not have ruined him.

Most people can’t afford to take that kind of risk.

Tether Buys Gold

It’s been in the news that Tether is buying gold and Bitcoin critics are screaming about it. 3

Critics argue this proves Bitcoin is over. If one of the largest crypto companies is shifting reserves, then so should you. But that ignores Tether’s reality.

Here’s Tether’s business model in a nutshell.

• They buy short term US government bonds and hold cash equivalents.

• They issue tokens ($USDT) tied to the U.S. dollar that are supposed to be backed 1:1 by reserves.

• They earn interest on those reserves while users trade and spend the Stablecoins.

• Large institutions can redeem $USDT for actual dollars.

Public attestations suggest the reserve mix looks roughly like this:4

• Short term US government bonds 75%

• Gold 10%

• Other (secured loans and various small investments) 10%

• Bitcoin 5%

Tether’s Truth

Critics look at this portfolio and say Tether doesn’t believe in Bitcoin. But they miss the point. Tether must redeem $USDT at a moment’s notice. This is why the majority of the reserves are in bonds. They are easy to sell and don’t suffer extreme volatility.

If their reserve system was backed up 100% by Bitcoin it would be a problem. Bitcoin is too volatile. Heavy redemptions during a drawdown could force them to sell Bitcoin into a down market just to raise cash.

Gold can be volatile. But historically, it is far less extreme than Bitcoin. Both assets diversify the reserves. At the end of the day, Tether must back its tokens. It can’t risk its redemption system on a Bitcoin volatility roller coaster.

This Applies to People Too

Everyone’s situation is different. CZ could afford to sell an apartment and buy 800 $BTC. My 90-year-old grandpa can’t put more than 1% of his portfolio on the Bitcoin roller coaster. He needs to buy groceries. This is not “disbelief” in Bitcoin. It’s risk profile.

Believing in Bitcoin is not the same thing as betting everything on it. Even if you’re convinced that Bitcoin is going to $1 million dollars you probably shouldn’t go all in. If the car breaks next month, you don’t want to be forced to sell at a loss. Short-term needs override long-term upside. That’s not hypocrisy or lack of conviction. It’s just knowing your limits.

Final Word

Don’t let anyone shame you into taking risk that you’re not ready for.

"Never risk what you have and need for what you don't have and don't need." — Warren Buffett

Bitcoin Myths Book

I’m turning the Bitcoin Myths series into a book. Something you can give to your friend who throws every Bitcoin myth under the sun at you. Paid subscribers will get first access when it’s released.

If you want first dibs, become a paid subscriber.

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 1 Part 3 →

I used to love playing Oregon Trail when I was in elementary school. The graphics were bad and the computer was old, but I loved the game anyway. The decisions were difficult and the hunting mini games were fun.

I remember agonizing over the decision to go steady, strenuous, or grueling. Go too slow and winter could catch you before the next fort. Go too fast and the party grew exhausted and sick. It was a difficult choice for an eight-year old to make.

Fast forward decades later and I am still making that choice, but for crypto communities.

The Growth Problem

Every founder wants the community to grow as fast as possible. More community members means more token holders, more liquidity, more money, and more opportunities. But this comes at a cost. More community members also means:

• More airdrop farmers who are there to earn tokens and immediately sell

• More confused community members who don’t understand the product

• More scammers who show up in chat channels to rob community members

• More community members to see early product updates that aren’t truly ready for the general public

• An overwhelmed team run ragged by community demands

• The voice of the true “believers” gets drowned out

• The founders lose control of the narrative

• Quick shortcuts become the primary route to take care of emergencies

All of these are caused by too many people joining a community that isn’t ready, with a product that isn’t finished and a team that isn’t prepared for mass adoption.

In other words, if you go at a “grueling” pace your party members die of dysentery.

The Advantage of Going Slow

When you go slow you can make certain that the community understands the product, the product works correctly, and the team understands the difficulties new users may face. Smart teams will use slower growth to:

• Fix bugs

• Make the product user-friendly

• Create explanations for common questions

• Educate the inner circle of the community so they can easily answer questions themselves

• Make certain early members are rewarded and airdrop farmers don’t ruin the token

• Teach the community the philosophy of the product so the narrative propagates without the founder having to police it.

This buys time so the team is exposed to all the problems before the world sees them.

Oregon Trail Reality

In a perfect world you could build slow forever. Make a perfect product and predict every possible question before scaling the community. But this isn’t possible. Every team has a budget and money will run out if users don’t come in. And you won’t even know for sure if the product works until you have a large group of people hammer on it.

Smart leaders know when to grow fast and when to go slow. Is the product ready for 10K users? Do we have enough educational content to answer known problems? Do we even know what the problems are? If the answer is no, you go slow. If the answer is yes, then you step on the gas.

But this isn’t just important for founders but also for users. Does the team seem overwhelmed? They probably grew before they were ready. This doesn’t always kill a project but it’s certainly something to consider. If the team never seems to “slow down” and solve community problems you might want to move your oxen to greener pastures. The project is going to embarrass itself.

But if the team never seems to take risks and grow then they have the opposite problem of being too fearful. Every project needs to make it to Oregon before “Crypto Winter” sets in. And decades later I am making the same difficult choices I had when I was eight years old.

Final Word

Know when to speed up and when to slow down.

“He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.” — Sun Tzu

Lost on the Crypto Trail?

Crypto Confidence School helps beginners understand wallets, DeFi, and tokenomics so your party survives the journey instead of learning the hard way.

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

← Part 2 Part 4 →

On January 26th I looked at the gold charts and couldn’t believe my eyes.

Gold and silver was in a bubble.

I knew immediately I needed to write about it. Years in crypto train you to recognize bubbles quickly. Once you’ve seen enough of them, the patterns become obvious.

Then life happened. Other posts were already scheduled, so this one didn’t go out when I wanted it to. I’m late.

Before going further, I need to be clear about something. I love gold. I really do.

So when I say gold was in a bubble, don’t hear a “Crypto bro” taking shots at gold because Bitcoin hasn’t taken over the world yet. That’s not what this is. When the gold bubble finishes unwinding, I plan to buy gold myself.

Now let’s look at the charts.

Here is gold’s chart I saw on January 27th. 1

Here is silver on January 27th. 2

And finally, here’s what those charts immediately reminded me of: Bitcoin in December 2017. 3

Ignore the assets.
Ignore the timeframe.
Ignore the prices.

Just look at the shape.

There’s no difference.

Yes, gold and silver are fundamentally different assets than Bitcoin. That’s not the point. All I am pointing to is the bubble. And bubbles reveal crowd psychology and nothing about the underlying asset itself. 4

• A house is still useful even if it’s 2007.

• Gold and silver are still important as long-term stores of value and industrial metals.

• The tech bubble burst in 2000. That didn’t make the internet irrelevant.

So if it has nothing to do with the underlying asset what causes these crazy bubbles?

Human psychology.

Here’s the speculative bubble cycle popularized by economist Jean-Paul Rodrigue. 5

1. Something changed. In gold’s case, one major trigger was the U.S. cutting Russia off from the financial system. That sent a message to other countries: your reserves may not be safe. Nations like China responded by reducing bond exposure and buying gold instead. 6

2. Smart people notice. People closest to the metals market see what’s happening and start positioning early.

3. Awareness. Gold rises steadily. Maybe 10% in a year. Financial media starts paying attention. The conversation stays mostly inside finance circles.

4. Mania. Numbers go up. Your Uber driver is now a gold expert. The stupidest person you know is buying silver.

5. Fear. The first real dip hits. Some people expect a quick recovery. There are usually bounces here.

6. Panic. Everyone wants out. The price dumps.

7. Nausea. There are winners, but many more losers. Six months later, you’ll meet people who never want to hear the word “gold” again.

8. Aftermath. This is the part that matters.

   The asset either disappears or it still solves problems. If it solves real world problems, it will rebuild and stabilize. Bitcoin did it. Tech stocks did it. Gold will do it too.

I’m writing this on February 3rd, though it won’t be published until February 15th. By then, we may already be deeper into the fear or panic phase.

Here is the current weekly gold chart.

The first bad dip happened on February 2nd. I could be wrong about where we are in the cycle. This could still be a pause before another leg higher. I’ve seen that happen many times in crypto.

Either way, gold is in a bubble.

And it will pop!

But here’s the part people miss.

Once the pop is over, and everyone is miserable, that’s when the real opportunity shows up. You may get the chance to buy an asset that has held value since ancient Egypt at a discount.

I wonder if this could apply to anything else?

Bubbles show up in nature and they show up in human nature as well. But just because a bubble pops doesn’t mean there was nothing there.

Final Word

What stage of the gold bubble do you think we are in?

“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

―Baron Rothschild

Disclaimer:
The information in this publication is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I actively invest and trade in the crypto markets, and my personal portfolio and holdings change frequently. Nothing I share should be interpreted as a guarantee of performance or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.